The Big Four (Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Murray) & Del Potro- Statistical Precursor to Australian Open 2012: Part 2



In my previous article, we had seen the Career and 2011 Match Record of the Big 4 and Del Potro.

In this article, let’s look at their individual game and do the Strength and Weakness Analysis of these players. Here are the statistics for their individual game on Hard Court in 2011:

Statistics*
 Djokovic
 Nadal
 Federer
 Murray
Del Potro
Aces
220
142
311
273
330
First Serve
65
65
63
58
60
First Serve Points Won
73
71
79
76
75
Second Serve Points Won
54
56
57
50
55
Service Games Won
85
82
90
81
87
Break Points Saved
63
63
63
61
66
Points Won Returning 1st Serve
36
34
33
37
29
Points Won Returning 2nd Serve
58
54
53
57
51
Break Points Converted
49
45
43
48
47
Return Games Won
41
32
30
37
25

* All stats are in % except Aces.

So what story do we see unfolding in front of ourselves? The red part highlighted shows the player who is the weakest in the respective category out of the 5.

Novak Djokovic: Clearly as you can see that Djokovic was no doubt the best in 2011 with an overall balanced game. If he can continue the same this year, it will be tough to see him getting defeated until a player overshadows him in every area of his game.

Roger Federer:  He looks strong but one area where he can definitely improve his game is break points converted. He had the lowest % amongst all the 5 and if he needs to win the first GS of 2012, he will have to make use of the opportunities, ensure that pressure is created and no easy chance is given to the opponent to return back.

Rafael Nadal: As we saw last year in US Open, Nadal’s service was a major cause of concern for him. He was way behind others in terms of aces and first serve points won. This could be a major deciding factor in crucial matches against Djokovic where easy points in terms of aces can be a major difference between losing and winning. For Djokovic, the best returner in the game at present, this would mean he can put pressure on Nadal’s service and can comeback or take a lead easily in the match. Hopefully heavier racquet will help Nadal improve his serve this year.

Andy Murray: Not only Murray had the lowest first serve % but he won the lowest service games.  This proved to be a point of concern for him in crucial matches such as 2011 AO final or Wimbledon/US Open SF.  With the players of the caliber of Djokovic/Nadal, you need to be at the top in each area of the game. This is one area (apart from mental toughness); he can definitely work upon with his new coach Ivan Lendl to win his first GS this year.

Juan Martin Del Potro: He is the dark horse this year but he will have to look at his return games won which was just a mere 25% last year. His serve looks solid but if you can not break your opponent service thrice in the match, it will be tough to win the crucial matches.

In the words of Sunzi:  “Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected”.  Djokovic was a perfect example of this in 2011; let’s see who will be the main force this time?

What do you think?

In the end, in case you missed this video, Watch it to to motivate yourself. Worth watching to see how one man and his determination proved everyone wrong!



Also: Evolution of Novak Djokovic- Australian Open (2007-2012)!

Nadal/Federer Controversy: Is There Something More To It?


Serena Williams, Kim Clijsters & Petra Kvitova- Statistical Precursor to Australian Open 2012: Part 3

If you have any questions- You can mail me at apekshaha@gmail.com,